Analysis of Age-Specific Fertility Rates: A Polynomial Model Approach

Abstract

In the present world fertility has become a long-standing issue among demographers. Although a lot of work has been done on such burning issue but research regarding the fertility measure in Jammu and Kashmir is yet to be appalling. So, in the present study analysis of Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR) of Jammu and Kashmir has been performed by applying Polynomial regression approach. The second degree polynomial has been used to fit the data after observing scatter plot. To test the stability and validity of fitted regression models, cross-validation prediction power, shrinkage, F-test and the coefficient of determination have been estimated. All the regression models suggest that the proposed models are significantly fit to evaluate the patterns of ASFR.