Forecasting Analysis of International Tourist Arrivals to Hyderabad, India, Using ARIMA Model

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the arrivals of tourists from various geographical regions across the world by employing time series and forecasting models. As we know, Tourism has been one of the rapidly growing and vital economic sectors worldwide. Similarly, Hyderabad is one of the most popular cities historically. Therefore, every year, progressively more people visit Hyderabad, which increases the tourism business in the country. The country gets a lot of money from tourism. It is imperative to start planning for tourists soon. There were a lot of international visitors to Hyderabad, India, every month from January 2014 to June 2019. This model is based on the Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. People who make ARIMA models use the Bayesian Information Criterion to choose the best one. Fitted ARIMA (9, 1, 4) can predict international tourist visits from July 2019 to December 2019 with a high level of accuracy, about 79.6%. A prediction of what will happen can deal with future problems. This kind of analysis is beneficial in lines of quality-of-service guarantee to the tourism industry to grow even more.